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Tools Are Available To Help Prepare
Florida citrus growers have been beleaguered by hurricanes, diseases such as citrus canker and greening, floods, and other problems. One of the continual winter issues that many growers have to consider each year is freezes. There was a moderate freeze in January 1997, but the last major tree-damaging freeze occurred in December 1989. Since 1894, temperatures in Central Florida have usually dropped below 20°F at least once every 20 years. Hence, the probability of a severe freeze increases the further we go beyond our last major freeze of 1989 — 16 years ago.
Causal Agents
During El Niño winters, the subtropical jet stream is stronger than usual. This allows Pacific storms to move across the southern U.S., bringing rain to California and Florida. Because of the cloudy, rainy weather, winters during an El Niño are usually cooler in Florida. This stronger subtropical jet stream deflects arctic outbreaks and helps reduce the probability of a major freeze during an El Niño. La Niña winters are normally warmer and drier than normal, and cold fronts that that do penetrate to South Florida often lack the punch to produce damaging temperatures.
The Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC), a group of universities that have come together to describe climate issues that affect the Southeast, has tools available to growers. The initial members of the SECC were the University of Florida, Florida State University, and the University of Miami. More recently, the University of Georgia, Auburn University, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville have joined the group.
The mission of the SECC is to “use advances in climate sciences, including improved capabilities to forecast seasonal climate, to provide scientifically sound information … for agriculture, forestry, and water resources management in the Southeastern USA.” Information about the SECC can be found at http://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/.
Helpful Tools
The SECC has developed AgClimate, a complete Web site (http://www.agclimate.org/) that “provides new tools to help producers understand and plan for climatic conditions.” AgClimate recently released a citrus outlook for the winter of 2005–2006. This outlook shows the risk of reaching certain cold temperatures. For citrus growers in central Florida, the risk of reaching a temperature of 20°F or less this winter is three times greater than normal. For Central Florida, the chance of 20°F reoccurring is every 10 to 20 years. For growers of other crops, the risk of reaching 14°F or colder is also three times greater in northeast Florida from Marion county into southeastern Georgia. More information can be obtained at the AgClimate Web site.
Will we get a severe freeze this winter? Since we are in a Neutral situation, the chances of a major freeze are better than normal. Citrus growers can prepare by inspecting their pumps and microirrigation systems, and hope for the best.
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